3E’s analysis of IPEDS data offers benchmarks for aligning application goals and recruitment plans with enrollment growth.
If your institution wants to grow its entering class by 10%, how much should applications grow to support that goal?
Is 10% enough? Should you plan for 20%? And what happens if a smaller share of applicants ultimately enrolls?
These are important questions for presidents and enrollment leaders setting enrollment goals and deciding how to fund student recruitment. Our latest analysis of federal IPEDS data provides benchmarks to help answer them.
We examined 355 private nonprofit four-year colleges and universities with at least 2,500 total students, comparing applications and first-time undergraduate enrollment from fall 2019 through fall 2023.
The findings show a strong relationship between application growth and enrollment growth. They also reveal that institutions in higher enrollment growth categories had progressively higher median application growth.
For leaders, the opportunity is to use those benchmarks alongside their own institutional data to build an application plan that supports the class they intend to enroll.
What application growth accompanied different levels of enrollment growth?
Of the 355 institutions studied, 210 grew first-time enrollment. Grouping those institutions by the enrollment growth they achieved revealed the following pattern:
| First-time enrollment growth | Median application growth | Institutions |
| More than 0%, through 5% | 13.1% | 65 |
| More than 5%, through 10% | 16.0% | 35 |
| More than 10%, through 20% | 22.5% | 54 |
| More than 20% | 41.3% | 56 |
These are cumulative changes from fall 2019 through fall 2023, not annual growth rates. Application figures are institution-level medians within each group.
Institutions that grew their entering class by more than 5% and up to 10% had median application growth of 16.0%. For those that grew enrollment by more than 10% and up to 20%, median application growth reached 22.5%. Among institutions with enrollment growth above 20%, it was 41.3%.
Across all 210 growing institutions, median application growth was 21.9%, while median enrollment growth was 10.9%.
In every enrollment growth category, median application growth exceeded the category’s lower enrollment growth threshold. The practical lesson is that an enrollment growth target deserves its own application growth calculation. Assuming the two should increase at the same rate may leave the recruitment plan short.
These findings do not establish a required minimum or guarantee an outcome. They show the application growth that accompanied enrollment growth across this group of institutions—and give leaders a reference point for evaluating their own plans.
Application growth was the more common path to a larger class
Among institutions that increased applications, 70.1% also grew first-time enrollment. Among those whose applications declined, 32.7% grew enrollment.
Institutions with application growth were more than twice as likely to grow their entering class.
Of the 210 institutions that grew enrollment, 83.8% also grew applications. The remaining 34 institutions grew enrollment despite application declines.
Improving enrollment without growing applications is possible. But in this analysis, it was the less common path. That matters when deciding how much of an enrollment plan should depend on a larger applicant pool and how much should depend on better conversion.
Translate the enrollment goal into an application goal
The benchmarks give leaders a starting point. Institutional conversion data makes the application goal specific.
Start with the number of students you intend to enroll. Then work backward through expected admission rates, admitted-student deposit yield, and deposit-to-enrollment conversion to estimate the applicant pool needed.
For example, if an institution wants to enroll 550 students and expects 10% of completed applicants to enroll, it would need approximately 5,500 completed applications. If that conversion rate falls to 9%, the same enrollment goal would require approximately 6,112 applications.
This is an illustrative planning calculation, separate from the IPEDS findings.
That one-percentage-point difference changes the application requirement by more than 600 students. It also changes the recruitment effort needed to produce the pool.
The calculation should reflect the class the institution wants to build. Applications from different markets, academic interests, and student populations may convert at different rates. A goal to grow enrollment while changing the composition of the class requires assumptions that account for both.
The question becomes more precise: How many applications, from which students, at what expected conversion rates, will support our enrollment goal?
Plan for the possibility of lower conversion
As students apply to more institutions, maintaining the same conversion rates while growing applications becomes harder. A larger pool may include more students who are still getting to know the institution or considering a wider range of options.
Planning for application growth while assuming yield will hold steady can leave an enrollment goal exposed.
A more prudent approach is to test the application goal against lower conversion assumptions. If a smaller share of applicants ultimately enrolls, is the pool still large enough to support the class we want?
This helps leaders see how much additional application growth may be needed and what recruitment investment would support it. It also makes clear where the plan depends on conversion improvements—and what evidence is needed to justify those expectations.
We can work to improve conversion while using conservative assumptions to plan the applicant pool.
The application goal sets the scale of the recruitment plan
Once the application goal is established, institutions can work backward again: Which markets offer sufficient opportunity? How many prospective students should the institution reach? What should the list strategy look like? What engagement is needed to turn awareness into interest and applications?
That work begins well before application season.
In our approach, early awareness can begin in middle school, with substantial pipeline development underway by tenth grade. Students need time to become familiar with an institution, understand its advantages, and connect those advantages with their interests and future.
At 3E, we have seen strong investment in sophomore- and junior-year enrollment marketing improve conversion at each stage from application through enrollment. Earlier engagement gives students more time to develop a preference before applying. It also gives institutions more time to learn what matters to each student and make subsequent interactions more relevant.
Early recruitment investment therefore belongs in both the application growth plan and the conversion strategy.
For presidents, an application goal provides a stronger basis for evaluating recruitment investment. For enrollment leaders, it helps set the market, list, and engagement goals needed to support future entering classes.
Connect the enrollment goal to the work that can deliver it
Our IPEDS analysis measures applications and first-time enrollment; it does not measure deposits. Institutions should connect all three stages in their own planning and measurement.
A larger qualified applicant pool creates more opportunity to generate deposits and enrollment. Effective engagement helps turn that opportunity into a class.
Through 3E’s Enrollment Engine, we connect market strategy, institutional differentiation, modern marketing, intent signals, cross-channel activation, and enrollment expertise. The work creates student demand, builds affinity, and moves students from awareness through enrollment.
The research gives leaders a practical reason to examine how those activities are sized and connected. An enrollment goal should lead to an application goal grounded in benchmarks and realistic conversion assumptions. That application goal should guide the recruitment strategy, timing, and investment.
For your next enrollment planning conversation, ask:
Have we planned for enough application growth to achieve our enrollment goal—even if conversion rates soften?
At 3E, our job is to connect that answer to the work of growing and shaping a class.
Not by chance. By design.
About the research: 3E analyzed IPEDS data for 355 private nonprofit four-year institutions in the 50 states and Washington, D.C., classified in that sector in both comparison years. Institutions had at least 2,500 total undergraduate and graduate students in fall 2023 and positive, matched application and first-time enrollment counts for fall 2019 and fall 2023. First-time enrollment includes full-time and part-time degree- or certificate-seeking students. The findings describe historical associations and do not establish causation. Observations about 3E’s early recruitment work reflect client experience, rather than findings from the IPEDS analysis.
Jim Rogers and Patricia Maben are the co-founders of 3 Enrollment Marketing (3E), a founder-owned enrollment marketing services firm that engineers growth for colleges and universities. Learn more at 3enrollment.com.